Iran is at a breaking point- Here´s what could happen next

Since late December last year, Iran is experiencing one of it's deadliest internal crises since the 1979 Islamic Uprisings. Vague and scarse reports from journalists and Human Rights Watch Groups suggest that the State's Islamic Revolutionary Guard (IRG) may have executed as much as 20,000 Unarmed civilians all accross the country. Media footage smuggled out of Iran shows the scale of the repression, with State forces using large firearms, Sniper Rifles, Batons, Handguns, and allegedly, paralyzing agents against protestors.

(Image, Source: X.com) Image Shows a Patient Hospitalized at Namazi Hospital, Multiple Metal objects are lodged in their cranium and facial area. They lost their vision as a result of the trauma from the gunshot.

The protests were initially economically driven, as the country has plummeted on a severe crisis, with the average Iranian man earning 250USD per month, however some reports suggest many working class men earn as low as 70-80 USD per month.

However, after the state responded with merciless force against peacefull protestors, the motiffs behind said protests quickly changed and radicalized specially amongst youths, Now Iranian diasporas all over the world are calling for the dismissal of the theocratic government led by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the return of the Shah, with many openly supporting Reza Pahlavi, the direct descendant of Iran's Last Shah, and leader of the Iranian Government in Exile, as a candidate to Govern Iran onto a democratic transition.

(Image, Source: N+ Noticias) President Donald J. Trump has threatened with military action in Iran

However, one of the factors setting this event apart from previous incidents in the region, has been the international response. Just days away from the American intervention in Venezuela, which ultimately resulted in Nicolas Maduro's Capture and De-Facto deposition, President Trump has threatened to escalate with military action, implying Ali Khemenei will suffer a fate similar to Maduro´s, however there has been no real action taken as of the 31st of January, apart from media stunts. The European Union has taken a different, non-operational stance, They are attempting to designate the IRG as a terrorist organization, such event taking place would result in Iran´s National Army being recognized as a foreign terrorist state actor. The world is watching this rapidly evolving situation closely, and many beg the question, What comes Next?

What Comes Next for Iran- Three Realistic Scenarios

As much as we hate to admit it, the first scenario (and the most likely one) assumes that no military action is taken against Iran, and in such case, the Islamic regime remains, just under heavy sanctions and foreign terrorist designations (Similar to what we have seen in the DPRK, Russia and Cuba), on this scenario, no real change occurs, however it MAY set a precedent for future internal or foreign action.

On our second scenario, there is heavy foreign non-military intervention, with intense diplomatic sanctions, economic blockades and support to opposition frameworks, this would dramatically increase the chances of internal fracture.

For our third scenario, we assume there is heavy military intervention, it is likely that said intervention wouldn´t be authorized by the UN Security Council thanks to Russia´s veto power, however assuming the foreign actors just dont care, the outcome would be way juicier, we´d see the forced removal of the Islamic Republic´s government, and a foreign-led transition onto a democratic structure, personally I believe said transitional government WOULD NOT be led by Mr. Pahlavi, as although his support has grown amongst certain diaspora and opposition groups, most Iranians (According to Reddit /PERSIAN), don´t support him either thanks to the allegations of widespread corruption during his father´s regime, and yes, it is argued that the Shah lived a lavish lifestyle, however his governance was always solid and respectfull of his citizens.

Even though there could be many possible outcomes to this situation, information is so limited, a real conclusive outcome cannot be inferred, it is important to closely monitor and pray for the situation in Iran.